Mayoral run-off “even” two weeks out
A new poll shows Atlanta City Councilmember Mary Norwood and Former State Sen. Kasim Reed (D-Atlanta) in a tight race for mayor with only two weeks before the Dec. 1 runoff.
A SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WXIA-TV and V103 FM shows Reed leading Norwood 49 percent to 46 percent with 5 percent undecided in a sample of 499 likely voters.
Here’s how the polling firm sees it:
Overall, two weeks until votes are counted, the candidates are even, Reed with a nominal advantage, inside the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. But underneath the surface, the results paint a picture of two different Atlantas. White Atlanta backs Norwood 4:1. Black Atlanta backs Reed 3:1. Wealthy Atlanta backs Norwood. Less wealthy Atlanta backs Reed. College grads back Norwood. Those who have not graduated from college back Reed. Those who voted for Lisa Borders in the general go 2:1 for Reed in the runoff.
City Council President Borders finished a distant third in the Nov. 3 General Election and has thrown her support behind Reed. When asked if the Borders endorsement would make them more or less likely to vote for Reed, 21 percent said yes, 22 percent said no, and 57 percent said it won’t make a difference.
SurveyUSA explains their methodology thusly:
1,000 city of Atlanta adults were interviewed 11/12/09 through 11/15/09. Of them, 890 were registered to vote. Of them, 499 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the runoff. In SurveyUSA’s turnout model, 58% of voters are black, 38% of voters are white. If blacks turn out in larger numbers, Reed will outperform the poll numbers shown here. If whites turn out in larger numbers, Norwood will outperform the poll numbers shown here.
“Kasim Reed and Mary Norwood have mirror-image constituencies in the runoff for Mayor of Atlanta,” SurveyUSA notes. “Which candidate gets their voters to the polls will determine the winner.”